I recently wrote a post about my favorite programs for the Mac (here). While writing it, I realized how outdated it sounded.
The reason: a very large percentage of the programs that I now use live in the “Cloud.” The “Cloud” as described by Walt Mossberg in today’s Wall Street Journal (here), is a combination of nebulous server farms around the world that store your information and run your programs. The programs that I run which do not live in the cloud, either could or soon will.
When using my personal computer, I spend 95% of my time on the internet and in the “Cloud.” That means I am running everything via a browser (in my case, I prefer Firefox). The “programs” I run via the “Cloud” include Gmail, Gtalk/AIM, Google Reader, GoogleMaps, Bing shopping, WordPress, NYTimes, WashingtonPost, Techmeme, and Pandora. “Programs” is in quotes because these are not really programs as much as they are websites that run programs and provide relevant information. When I am at work, I may spend ~30% of my time in the “Cloud” because I spending the rest of it using Microsoft Office. However, my company could easily choose Google Apps and/or Zoho Office to replace Microsoft Office. Except for Excel, I have found Google Apps to be as good as MS Office. When it comes to collaboration and email, Google easily beats Microsoft. For the price (i.e. free for personal use and $50/yr for enterprises), Google Apps is a no-brainer.
Microsoft is slowly and grudgingly moving in this direction. They are in no rush as this could destroy their business model but competition is forcing their hand.
For a company (and personal use) the metrics/ROI for moving to the “Cloud” are too hard to pass up. The programs are just as good. They are more robust (due to automatic updates). They are available anywhere in the world with an internet connection (and even offline). They are priced right — 1. cost of use is negligible (i.e. free), 2. computing resources are minimal (i.e. only a computer that can run a browser), which lowers hardware expenditures, and 3. IT costs are minimized. A personal example of the ease of the “Cloud” is when I coaxed my mother to move to Yahoo Mail (I had my reasons but it was a mistake but that is another story). She used to have major issues with her email. Now, no issues and no phone calls to me. The same goes for IT Help Desks in a company. The PC, as a truly personal computer, is slowly withering away (see Forbe article here).
With 2010 only a few hours away, here are a few predictions of what the “Cloud” means for the future of computing: 1. Everything becomes easier but slightly less secure, 2. computer prices will continue to drop because you will not need to buy a powerful new computer. One of the most power-hungry applications, gaming, is heading to the “Cloud.” In 12 months, so long as you have a fast broadband connection, you will be able to play even the most hardcore games via the “Cloud.” 3. Content rental/streaming continues its fast growth. Netflix streaming, movie rental via Amazon and others is quickly becoming a major force. Its growth will only continue. Why buy a movie for $15 when you can rent it for $3. You can watch it again every few months for another $3. If you watch a DVD fewer than 5 times, then renting is the way to go. You can also watch it on anything with a screen (who will continue to need a DVD player built into their computer?). 4. Music streaming overtakes music buying. I have many gigs worth of music in my iTunes folder. How often do I listen to it? Maybe once a month. How often do I listen to Pandora/AOL Music? Daily. How much do I pay? Zero. Louise Gray had an interesting article on this topic here. 5. Mobile — this is the biggie that stands over all of the other predictions (and is not so much a prediction as a statement of fact). See below…
Mobile is one of the main driving forces / enablers of the “Cloud” (plus, of course, cheap fiber/broadband, massive and low-cost server farms). Why is mobile a driver? Your phone is not powerful enough to truly be smart (even if it is a “smartphone”). However, when plugged into the Internet, a cellphone/smartphone becomes nearly as powerful as my laptop. On my phone, I can do 99% of the things I can do on my computer such as send, receive, and write emails or documents. I can view just about any website, read books, and listen to streaming music. My phone is my GPS device (even though my current, terrible BlackBerry 8800 has its GPS disabled by Verizon but triangulation thanks to Google works well enough). I can make restaurant reservations via Opentable and so forth. My next computer purchase may only be for a screen and a keyboard with a USB cable plug for my phone. With everything in the “Cloud,” the phone becomes just another device to connect. It enables the “Cloud.”
I am excited for the future…welcome to 2010!